Phyllis Weiss Haserot's
Organizational Effectiveness Issue of the Month

February, 2003

IMPLICATIONS OF WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE FORECASTS

The forecasts below from Herman Trend Alert Top Ten Forecasts: Workforce and Workplace: 2003, January 1, 2003 ring true, and barring dramatic impact of a worsening economy or long war, we need to pay heed and factor these forecast trends into planning for retention, recruiting, service delivery and organizational change. Numbers 3, 4, 8, 9, and 10 should be of particular interest to professional service firms.

1. As the economy picks up, employers will face the most severe shortage of skilled labor in history.

2. More people will become independent contractors, selling their services to employers on a project or set-term basis.

3. As the economy picks up, employers who have treated employees badly during the tight economy will be in serious trouble. More workers will leave, laid-off employees won't return, and fewer applicants will choose to work there.

4. Workers who are fortunate enough to have found their preferred work environment will tend to stay longer. People will seek stability, but may change jobs more frequently in their search for their personal employer of choice.

5. Corporate training and education will accelerate to accommodate new employees and the redevelopment of existing staff.

6. Portable benefits will come into vogue, as employees negotiate individualized compensation arrangement with employers forced to be accommodating.

7. Fewer people will retire completely. Retirees will move into jobs in other fields, start their own businesses, and engage in other activities to remain active and productive.

8. Re-emphasis on telecommuting will inspire substantial changes in where and how companies do business. Space allocation and management styles will shift to accommodate this flexibility.

9. Employers will be more selective in hiring. Culture "fit" will become as important as skills, experience, and attitude.

10. Leadership development will take on new importance, as employers discover serious inadequacies. Senior executives who do not demonstrate leadership qualities will be asked to leave. Up and coming managers will be expected to learn and practice leadership skills before being moved into senior or even mid-level positions.
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[Herman Trend Alerts are written by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, professional speakers.; www.hermangroup.com]

PHYLLIS' COMMENTARY

Many firms have been more concerned about the messages they give out when laying off people than they were during the last recession, if only for public relations reasons. Yet there were still those that refused to admit the impact of a weak economy on their business and cited substandard performance as the rationale for layoffs (firings). It is likely that those messages won't quickly be forgotten by recruits, schools or recruiters. Given choices in a hotter economy, they will choose firms with a more hospitable image and reputation. Integrity is important, especially to the X and Y generations. They will also expect to be valued for their contributions, get training and mentoring, and will show more loyalty of their own to firms that they perceive treat their people well. Lastly, a positive example will have been set for the civility and cohesiveness that has been absent at many firms in recent memory.

Just as "cultural fit" will be a significant criterion for the talented professionals firms are pursuing, employers will assess the cultural fit of people they will recruit. This will take a change in priorities from the days of looking primarily at the numbers, that is , how big is the book of business, or for entry levels, where they went to school. In order to do this, firms will have to carefully evaluate who has been successful (however they choose to define "success") at the firm and develop ‘success profiles" as a model for interviewing and hiring.

Part of "cultural fit" is degree of flexibility. Telecommuting is just one aspect of flexibility that personnel will be looking at as they strive for a work environment that satisfies their needs for work/life excellence. Flexible work arrangements for men as well as women, senior professionals as well as people with young families, staffing flexibility to address peaks and valleys of work load, and valuing of skills other than the technical skills and knowledge pertaining to a practice area - all of these will make a firm an "employer of choice."

As I concluded Chapter 48 of THE RAINMAKING MACHINE (West Group, 2003) on "21st Century Leadership": "In the majority of cases, (professional) firms will have to identify and grow their own leaders. They should devote considerably more attention to succession planning then they have in the past. Current leaders should look to those currently playing key roles in business development, recruiting, development of new practice areas, and community or professional organizations. Those who think "the firm first," who are team players, who have good interpersonal skills and who have taken risks that have paid off are prime candidates for future leadership. Firms that aim to thrive must identify their future leaders and permit them to take the reins."

Please e-mail me your comments to start a dialogue at pwhaserot@pdcounsel.com or "Contact Us" at www.pdcounsel.com.

Thank you.

© Phyllis Weiss Haserot, Practice Development Counsel, 2003. All rights reserved.

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