Phyllis Weiss Haserot's
Organizational Effectiveness Issue of the Month
TURNAROUND TIME: FOCUS BACK ON KEEPING GREAT TALENT
January, 2004
It's time to look at trends and forecasts for another new year. Last year I cited some interesting trends from the "Herman Trend Alert: 2003 Workforce and Workplace Forecasts." [Herman Trend Alerts are written by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, strategic business futurists, www.hermangroup.com] Here's this year's look with my own riff on some of the trends the Hermans highlight.
Many of the 10 trends they identified are a continuation or re-surfacing of those we had seen before the economic turndown of the last few years. They include:
* A shift from a buyers' to a sellers' market on the labor front.
* An acceleration of training and education led by corporate development
programs to produce employees ready to meet the challenges of an ever-faster
paced world.
* More independent contractors, and more electronic communities arising
to serve their operational, marketing and social needs and connect them
to employers.
* "Casual" or informality in clothing, workplace interiors and
culture still holding on.
* Eroding of traditional work arrangements.
Some of the other trends picking up steam deserve more comment and attention.
*** "Retirement will evaporate. Traditional retirement will continue its metamorphosis. Retirees will move into jobs in other fields, start their own businesses, and engage in other activities to remain active and productive, " wrote Herman.
I believe it is important to divide those retirees into two groups. One is composed of people who need to keep working owing to financial necessity, whether or not they are doing it for intellectual stimulation as well. Others more fortunate, will be working for the continued intellectual challenge and social factors that work can bring. However, many of the people in this second category, particularly professionals and senior managers who have put in long hours for many, many years, will be looking to ease off in billable (or equivalent) hours while still being able to be productive and valuable contributors to their organization. Smart firms will retain at least some of these people to serve as trainers, mentors and institutional memory in addition to reduced client-related workload, granting them flexible schedules at reduced compensation. Consider the alternative: a loss of valuable wisdom, relationships and cultural glue - not a promising outlook for a firm or organization aspiring to a long-term starring role in it's field and industry.
*** Search for Employer of Choice. "Employers will face the most severe shortage of skilled labor in history," said the Herman Trend Alert. We will see, as we witnessed in the mid-to late 1990s, people changing jobs, perhaps frequently, to find their personal "employer of choice." As a result companies will again become more aggressive in order to attract and retain valuable talent. And this trend is likely to be a long-term one given the demographic realities of the population. (The shortage will not be solved primarily with overseas labor, as that has both pros and cons.)
I forecast that the combination of demand outstripping supply and changing personal objectives will result in a trend toward people selecting specialties in their professions based on life style choices. They will carefully research and choose firms based on "culture" and organizational style. They will insist on "flexibility" and choose specialties and team situations where that is possible. Statistics and interviews reveal that this is already true in the medical profession. Medical students and young physicians have been flocking to dermatology, anesthesiology, radiology and emergency room medicine - specialties in which they can control their time. When their shift is over, they don't have to be "on call." Some of the accounting firms have made significant strides in providing flexibility as well.
We will see clearer differentiation between firms that require "total commitment" to work from their people (that is one's life belongs to the firm) and those with more balanced work/life expectations because young professionals and executives in training demand it. Flexible arrangements will apply to senior professionals and managers as well - it will be a shift in thinking about required work and life cycles. Recruiting efforts based on choice will attract some of the "best and brightest" to organizations where there is a good fit with values and life styles. It will be more of an advantage than ever.
This phenomenon does not have to be a liability for firms. They can retain more professionals at lower overall compensation and staff engagements and projects with more diverse, happier teams - people who sleep at night. What a thought!
*** Obstacles to flexible employment lessen. As more people ask
to work from home and use technology to work in distant locations as well
as work flex-time, traditional work arrangements will become one of several
alternatives. Employers will need to re-think and restructure not only
their policies, but also their processes for implementing and monitoring
flexible arrangements. In order to prevent or overcome resentment and
perceptions of uneven burdens, arrangements will need to be worked out
based on dialogues among all team members to be affected as well as the
individuals and the people they report to.
(See www.pdcounsel.com/managing%20work%20expect.html)
These trends are not the product of far-fetched crystal-ball gazing. Senior management, decision-makers need to take heed now! Forward this article to yours.
© Phyllis Weiss Haserot, 2004. All rights reserved. _____________________________________________________________________________
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